What size mini split does a 200 sq ft bedroom in Jonesboro, AR need?

City

Room area (sq ft)

Room

200 ft² bedroom in Jonesboro, AR

6,000BTU/hr

4,640 BTU/hr of load at 23.2 BTU/ft² — the figure for 1,726 cooling degree days

Head size to buy	6,000BTU/hr
Calculated load200 ft² × 23.2 BTU/ft²	4,640BTU/hr
BTU per square foot hereinterpolated from Jonesboro's 1,726 cooling degree days	23.2BTU/ft²
What the 20 BTU/ft² rule givesthis room needs 16% more than the rule says	4,000BTU/hr
Summer design temperature	93°F
Winter design temperaturea mini split heats too — this is the number that decides whether it can carry the room alone	11°F
Summer day–night swinga moderately humid climate	19°F
Days at or above 90°F	38days/yr
Oversize from the size stepa big step — read the note	29%

Notes

The "20 BTU per square foot" rule is a Midwest number. Jonesboro runs 1,726 cooling degree days, which works out to 23.2 BTU/ft² — so for this bedroom the rule is 16% short. A single national figure has to be wrong somewhere, and this is where.
Bedroom: the room where oversizing hurts most — quiet, low load, long runtimes wanted.
6,000 BTU/hr is 29% above the load, and the gap between head sizes is wide — this is already the smallest head. In a single room that matters more than it would on a central system: there are no other rooms to absorb the excess capacity. If the room is well insulated and shaded, the smaller head is usually the better buy, and modern inverter compressors modulate down far better than they modulate up.
Jonesboro is moderately humid — summer nights stay within 19°F of the day's high, the signature of humid air. A meaningful share of this head's work is removing moisture, and it only removes moisture while it is running. This is the climate where an oversized head produces a room that reads cold and feels clammy.
Do not forget the winter side. Jonesboro designs to 11°F. A cold-climate rated head will hold most of its capacity there, but a standard one will not — ask for the capacity at 11°F in writing.
Where these numbers come from. Poplar Bluff / Green Forest, 105 km from downtown Jonesboro, daily records 2015–2024. Design temperatures are calibrated against published ASHRAE values at eight airports and land within about 2°F of them.

The short answer

A 200 square foot bedroom in Jonesboro, AR needs a head of about 6,000 BTU per hour. The calculated load is 4,640 BTU/hr.

Where that number comes from

Jonesboro, AR runs 1,726 cooling degree days a year, which puts the room at 23.2 BTU per square foot rather than the 20 BTU/ft² the generic charts use. Applied to this room the rule gives 4,000 BTU/hr.

The winter half of the question

Jonesboro, AR designs to 11°F. A mini split is a heat pump, and its heating capacity falls as the outdoor temperature drops — the nameplate is measured at 47°F, not at the temperature you actually need it.

Sizing a single room is not sizing a house

There is no other room to absorb a mistake. An oversized head short-cycles, never runs long enough to dehumidify, and leaves the room cold and damp.

Nearby sizes

Mini Split Blowing Cold Air in Heat Mode — Defrost, UsuallyEvery air-source heat pump does this. Knowing what a defrost cycle looks like is the difference between waiting ten minutes and calling somebody out.
Mini Split Leaking Water Indoors — Four Causes, One CommonA cooling head makes a couple of litres a day. It leaves through a small pipe with no pump behind it, and that pipe is where nearly every leak starts.
Multi-Zone Mini Split Not Cooling Every Room — The Minimum Output ProblemThe system is not underpowered. It is oversized for the one room that is calling, and multi-zone units handle that far worse than single-zone ones.